ETF lifecycle — AUM trajectories & category probabilities
Balanced base case. Probabilities must sum to 100%. AUM in €M, per ETF, conditional on category.
Assumptions Total 100.0%
| Category | Probability | AUM Y0 (€M) | AUM Y1 (€M) | AUM Y3 (€M) | AUM Y5 (€M) | AUM Y8 (€M) |
|---|
Under-Performer AUM reaches 0 by Year 5 (liquidation). Over-Performer, Performer and Flat-Performer remain active through Year 8 and beyond (AUM held flat after Y8).
AUM trajectory per category
Year 0 is the quarter the ISIN goes live. The revenue engine interpolates linearly between these milestones quarter by quarter for each cohort.
ISIN pipeline — KVG types & market penetration
Bottom-up model: grow KVG partnerships linearly to a target share of the European KVG market. Each partner is assigned a type (Large / Mid / Small / Mini) by probability, each type issues ISINs at a baseline annual rate that compounds per partner year-over-year.
KVG types Total 100.0%
| Type | Probability | ISINs per year (baseline) |
|---|
Default baseline: Large 8, Mid 4, Small 2, Mini 1 ISINs/year. With 10% growth a Large issuer produces 8.0 ISINs in Year 1, 8.8 in Year 2, 12.8 in Year 6, 18.9 in Year 10.
Markets & penetration
Each enabled market contributes its own KVG ramp starting from its entry year. Linear mode: arithmetic progression (start fraction 1.0 = flat, <1 = ramp up, >1 = front-loaded). Power mode: cumulative power curve (shape 1.0 = linear, >1 = slow start, <1 = fast start). Two-phase mode: fast flat ramp to Phase 1 share, then slower flat ramp to final Target share — models "land-grab then saturation". Signings aggregate across all enabled markets.
Cumulative KVGs signed (by type)
Cumulative ISINs issued (by type)
Revenue projections — ARR basis
All revenue figures on an Annual Run-Rate basis — the annualised fee book at the end of each quarter. Technology + MM fees apply to every active ISIN; PM fees apply only to the share of ISINs where NaroIQ also provides portfolio management (attach rate, default 60%). Minimum-fee floor per ISIN per year.
ARR trajectory — fee stack by quarter
Each bar is the annualised run-rate fee book at the end of that quarter (tech + PM stacked).
ARR at year-end (Q4) by category
Active ISINs & aggregate AUM
ARR at year-end
| Year (EoY) | Active ISINs | Aggregate AUM (€M) | Tech ARR (€) | PM ARR (€) | MM ARR (€) | Total ARR (€) | YoY ARR growth | % @ min fee |
|---|
"% @ min fee" = share of active ISINs whose AUM is below the AUM-fee / min-fee breakeven (€100M with default pricing). Below that threshold, minimum fees apply per ISIN per year.